Evidence Engine — BOX 2
Analyst Forecast
Expert predictions based on trend analysis. Valuable for strategic planning, but clearly labeled as projections — not proven facts.
BOX 2 criteria
Analyst forecasts qualify when they meet these standards:
Source is recognized industry expert or analyst firm
Methodology or reasoning is explained
Assumptions are stated explicitly
Clearly labeled as forecast/projection/prediction
Timeframe for forecast is specified
BOX 2 forecasts we track
AEO market to reach $11B by 2030
Market Research Future2024-2030Directional
50% of search queries AI-influenced by 2026
Gartner2024-2026Moderate
Zero-click rate to exceed 70% by 2025
SparkToro/Jumpshot extrapolation2023-2025Directional
RAG to become dominant enterprise search by 2027
Forrester2024-2027Moderate
When to use BOX 2 evidence
Forecasts have a place, but it's limited:
APPROPRIATE
- ✓Strategic planning and market sizing
- ✓Justifying investment in emerging areas
- ✓Identifying trends worth monitoring
- ✓Adding context to BOX 4/BOX 3 findings
NOT APPROPRIATE
- ✗Claiming specific ROI or results
- ✗Promising particular outcomes
- ✗Overriding BOX 4/BOX 3 evidence
- ✗Presenting as fact without qualification
Forecast limitations
Why we're careful with BOX 2 evidence:
Analyst firms have commercial incentives to inflate market sizes
Technology predictions have historically low accuracy
Forecasts often assume linear trends that don't hold
Specific numbers create false precision
Markets can shift faster than prediction timeframes